US air strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities have upended the already tense standoff between Tehran, Washington, and Israel, raising urgent questions about what comes next -- and just how far Iran might go in its retaliation.
Tehran faces the difficult task of crafting a response that is neither too weak to appear powerless nor too forceful to risk further escalation.
Analysts warn that Iran's options are varied, but all carry significant risks of escalation.
"Iran could retaliate in a number of ways. First, and most obvious, is the option to attack US military bases in the region, especially Iraq," said Colin Clarke, director of research at The Soufan Group.
He told RFE/RL that the Iranians could either do this on their own or through the prominent Iraq-based Shi'ite militia Kataib Hezbollah.
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While targeting US bases is a threat often voiced by Iranian military figures, the risks associated with the move are not lost on the Iranian authorities. That could explain why Fars news agency, an outlet affiliated with the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), on June 22 tried tosuggestthe US strikes were merely a distraction to goad Iran into attacking US bases and shift its attention away from Israel.
Another option, Clarke said, was getting Yemen's Houthi rebels to strike at the Persian Gulf Arab states, as occurred back in June 2019, when the grouptargetedSaudi Arabia's energy infrastructure with drones, shutting down half of the kingdom's oil production.
One "concerning possibility" is Iran relying on asymmetric methods, such as an attack by sleeper cells in the United States linked to its proxies.
The Strait of Hormuz: Desperation Or Deterrence?
Amid a surge of rhetoric in Tehran about closing the Strait of Hormuz -- a vital chokepoint for global oil shipments -- US officials have issued stern warnings.
Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio have both cautioned Iran against such a move, calling it "suicidal" given it would hurt Iran's own economy because it uses the waterway toexportoil, mostly to China.
Some experts are skeptical Iran could meaningfully close the strait or that doing so would be sustainable.
